In a tight trading range, gold has seen a slight increase overnight, reaching a daily high of 2655.24 while touching a low of 2633.99, ultimately closing at 2643.24. This morning, in the European market, gold continues to oscillate narrowly, hovering around the $2641 mark.

A significant shift is on the horizon!

As the U.Sstock markets closed variably, the Dow Jones dipped by 0.17%. In contrast, the S&P 500 managed a slight rise of 0.05%, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.4%, with both the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq marking new closing highs.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the latest JOLTs report indicated that in October, the number of job openings was at 7.744 million, exceeding the expectation of 7.475 million, and revising previously reported figures down from 7.443 to 7.372 million

Nick Timiraos, known as the Fed's voice, remarked that the three-month moving average for job openings remains slightly above pre-pandemic levelsNotably, there are now 1.1 job openings for every unemployed person, a stable ratio since July.

Fed governor Chris Waller stated that the policy path is not predefined, affirming that decisions will be made in a stepwise manner; he indicated that the current Fed policy is well-positioned to deal with uncertaintiesWaller emphasized close monitoring of any risks that could reverse the declining inflation trend and negative supply shocks; the American economy appears robust, with a healthy labor market and inflation seemingly on a trajectory toward the 2% target.

Today's trading day carries multiple event risks across financial markets, including the release of the U.S

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ADP employment report, the ISM services PMI, and the Fed's Beige Book, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell expected to give a speech, which could trigger significant market movements.

The ADP employment change data for November is anticipated, traditionally referred to as the "mini non-farm payroll." Media surveys estimate that 150,000 jobs will be added in November, following an increase of 233,000 jobs in October.

Analysts suggest that if this data surpasses expectations, it could reignite optimistic sentiments toward the upcoming non-farm payroll data on Friday, potentially resulting in a decline in gold prices.

The ISM non-manufacturing PMI for November is set to release, with an expected figure of 55.5.

Chairman Powell is also slated for an interview at the DealBook/Summit conference hosted by The New York Times.

It's noteworthy that during Powell’s recent remarks in November, he took a hawkish stance, suggesting the Fed was in no hurry to lower interest rates due to the robust employment market and persistent inflation rates exceeding the 2% target.

The Federal Reserve is expected to unveil its economic conditions in the beige book document.

Ahead of Friday's non-farm employment data for November, traders have intensified their bets on a rate cut, forecasting a 70% chance that the Fed will reduce rates by 25 basis points this month, up from 55% earlier in the week

Tools like the CME's FedWatch indicate that the likelihood of a rate cut in December approaches 73%.

Regarding U.Sequities, 2023 has marked an exceptionally bright year for American marketsThe S&P 500 has recorded total returns exceeding 20% for two consecutive years, a rarity with only a one in five chance of occurrenceEven more astonishing is that the S&P 500 has achieved 54 record highs this year alone, with a whole month left in the trading yearHistorically, following such explosive rises, the probability of stock declines in the subsequent year tends to be higher than that of increases.

Furthermore, investors are advised to remain attentive to international geopolitical developments.

On the afternoon of December 4th, reports from the South Korean National Assembly state that six opposition parties have united to initiate an impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk-yeol, which was submitted that day

The impeachment motion is slated to be officially reported to the National Assembly on the 5th, with votes expected between the 6th and 7th of December.

The previous evening, President Yoon hastily declared a "state of emergency." He cited multiple reasons alleging that the opposition was compelling the National Assembly and undermining the country, pledging to purge "anti-state forces" within South KoreaLee Jae-myung, head of the Democratic Party, quickly called upon the citizens to protect the National Assembly. However, about six hours later, the emergency order was lifted.

Following the "emergency state" announcement, the South Korean financial markets experienced drastic fluctuations, with the won rapidly depreciating against the dollar, briefly hitting 1446 won per dollar, the lowest level in over 15 years

In the stock market, major South Korean firms trading in the U.Ssaw significant drops in their share prices; the declines moderated after the state council in South Korea passed a resolution to lift the state of emergency.

On December 4, the KOSPI opened down by 1.97% and saw continuous fluctuation during the session; KB Financial Group's shares dropped over 7% at one point.

Currently, President Yoon's position is precarious, with support rates plummeting to an alarming low. A late November poll revealed his support rate plummeting to just 19%, while his disapproval rate rose to 72%, remaining stubbornly high above 70% for several consecutive weeks.

Since 2022, South Korea's economy has been on a steady decline; its nominal GDP for 2022 was at $1.6733 trillion, placing it 13th globally, a drop from the top ten for the first time in three years. In 2023, its global GDP ranking further fell to 14th.

Analysis of Gold Trends on December 4th

From a technical standpoint, the gold market remains relatively unchanged from yesterday, with fluctuations occurring around the four-hour moving average system, awaiting a definitive direction.

The trading range appears to have contracted even more than yesterday, with a general outlook between 2620 and 2660.

Traders should maintain a cautious stance, focusing primarily on observing the market dynamics.